Nepal is set to participate in the upcoming T20 World Cup in June 2024, and it’s crucial to examine the team’s performance in T20 cricket post-January 2021. The records present a comprehensive overview:
- Total matches played: 41
- Total opponents faced: 15
- Total matches won: 28
- Total home matches: 25
- Matches won at home: 18
- Total away matches: 16
- Matches won away: 10
This impressive track record results in a winning percentage of 68.29%, showcasing Nepal’s prowess in the T20 format. However, there is a discernible trend indicating potential challenges for the team, especially when faced with high-scoring opponents or when the Nepali batsmen find themselves under pressure.
I excluded the matches played in the Asian Games from the following analysis. The rationale behind this exclusion is that the opponents faced in the Asian Games varied significantly in strength, being either stronger or weaker than the teams we typically encounter. Consequently, all the statistics provided are specific to the period from January 2021 onward, with a deliberate omission of data from the Asian Games. Additionally, our focus today will be solely on Nepal’s performance in the second innings of T20i cricket.
Nepal has engaged in 23 innings while chasing, securing victories in 15 of them, which is a commendable achievement. Examining the contrasting scenarios between won and lost matches reveals significant disparities.
In matches won, the first powerplay score stands at 37.72% of the total opponent runs, coupled with the loss of 1.2 wickets. This information underscores the effectiveness of Nepal’s top order, showcasing a brilliant start by scoring 37% of the runs within the initial powerplay, all the while minimizing wicket losses. It can be inferred that more than half of the victories were clinched during this crucial phase. However, delving into the statistics of lost matches presents a different picture.
In matches lost, the first powerplay score drops to 29.24% of the total opponent runs, with an increased wicket loss of approximately 2.1 (~2) wickets. The stark contrast in the percentage of runs obtained during the powerplay in winning versus losing matches highlights a substantial difference. The higher wicket losses and failure to achieve even 30% of the total runs during the powerplay significantly diminish the likelihood of Nepal emerging victorious.
Interesting Fact: Nepal has won only one match when losing 3 or more wickets in the first powerplay while chasing. This particular victory stands as an exception, as Nepal emerged triumphant due to not losing any wickets during the middle overs (7 – 16).
In the matches lost, Nepal has only surpassed 31% of the required runs in the 1st powerply on one occasion. That singular instance occurred when they were chasing the lowest total of just 102 runs and achieved an impressive 38.62% of runs in the first powerplay. However, despite this noteworthy start, they faced defeat. The primary contributing factor to the loss was the boundary percentage, which stood at just 25%. Therefore, the trend suggests that, until now, scoring more than 33% of the required runs and losing not more than 2 wickets appears to be the winning formula for Nepal when chasing. Expanding the analysis to include the boundary percentage, a critical aspect in T20 cricket, reveals that in matches where Nepal scores more than 33% of runs in the first powerplay, and the overall boundary percentage is at least 35%, the team has consistently emerged victorious. This seems to be the preferred format for Nepal when chasing in T20 matches.
Turning attention to the crucial middle overs (7-16) while chasing, Nepal faced a significant challenge in the 8 matches lost, where they lost 4 or more wickets in overs 7-16 on 6 occasions. This recurring pattern poses a major concern for Nepal. Out of these 8 lost matches, Nepal managed to secure only one victory when losing 3 or more wickets in overs 7-16. The performance in the middle overs in lost matches reveals an alarming statistic of 16 runs per wicket, indicating a significant area for improvement.
Amidst these considerations, let’s comprehend the winning scenarios for Nepal outlined in the given chart, where each column is described as follows:
- 1st Column: % of total opponents’ runs scored in 1st powerplay
- Green: More than (30-35)%
- White: (30-35)%
- Red: Less than (30-35)%
- 2nd Column: runs per wicket in middle over (7-16)
- Green: More than 30
- Red: Less than 30
- (- White): No data available as the match concluded before the 16th over
- 3rd Column: Wickets lost in 1st powerplay
- 4th Column: % of total runs scored through boundaries
- Green: More than 48%
- White: (35-48)%
- Red: Less than 38%
- Match Results (5th Column):
- Green: Won
- White: Lost
This data is from matches in which Nepal was chasing post-January 2021 and before 8 March 2024.
Now, our objective is to achieve the green indicator in the last column. Let’s proceed step by step through each scenario.
- If the first column is green and the fourth column is green, it implies that the fifth column will be green under the condition that the second column isn’t red:
Explanation: if the team scores more than 35% of the required runs in the first powerplay, and the runs in boundaries for the entire inning exceed 48%, then Nepal consistently wins the game, provided that the runs per wicket in the middle overs are more than 30.
Following this scenario, Nepal has emerged victorious in 6 games (Serial Numbers: 1, 2, 9, 15, 17, 18). - If the first column is green, and the fourth column is white, Nepal can still secure a victory, provided that the wicket count within the 1st powerplay does not exceed 2:
Explanation: If Nepal scores more than (30-35)% of the required runs in the 1st powerplay, and the runs through boundaries range between (35-48)%, then Nepal consistently emerges victorious under the condition that they do not lose more than 2 wickets in the 1st powerplay.
Nepal has won 2 games following this scenario: (S.No: 6, 8). - If the first column is red, and the fourth column is white, there are two conditions to win the match. The first condition is that the second column has to be green, and the wicket count inside the 1st powerplay should not exceed 2:
Explanation: If Nepal has not scored (30-35)% of the required runs in the 1st powerplay but has achieved (35-48)% of the total runs through boundaries, Nepal can secure victories under two conditions:
i) Nepal shouldn’t lose more than 2 wickets in the 1st powerplay.
ii) The runs per wicket in the middle overs (7-16) should be more than 30.
Nepal has won 2 matches following this scenario: (S.No: 3, 14).
Note: An exception to this scenario is that, despite fulfilling these two conditions, Nepal lost a match once because they played too slowly compared to the required run rate. The exception match is (S.No: 4). - If the first column is white, and the fourth column is green, two conditions must be met to win the match: the second column should be green, and the wicket count in the 1st powerplay should not exceed 2:
Explanation: If Nepal scores exactly (30-35)% of the opponent’s runs in the 1st powerplay, and the boundary percentage of total runs exceeds 48%, then Nepal must satisfy these two conditions for a victory:
i) Nepal should not lose more than 2 wickets in the 1st powerplay.
ii) The runs per wicket in the middle overs (7-16) should be more than 30.
Nepal has won 1 matches following this scenario: (S.No: 12) - If the first column is red, and the fourth column is green, there is a condition for the team to win the match and that is second column should also be green:
Explanation: If Nepal fails to achieve (30-35)% of the total opponent’s runs in the 1st powerplay, there is still an opportunity to win by scoring more runs through boundaries, exceeding 48%, and losing only one wicket in the middle overs with a run count of 30 or more.
Nepal has secured victories in 2 matches following this scenario: (S.No: 16, 20). - If the first column is white and the fourth column is also white, there are two additional scenarios to win the match:
i) The wickets lost in the 1st powerplay should not exceed 1.
ii) If there are more than 2 wickets lost, then the runs per wicket in the middle overs should be more than 30:
Explanation: If Nepal scores exactly (30-35)% of the opponent’s runs in the 1st powerplay and accumulates runs through boundaries ranging from (35-48)%, and if the number of wickets lost in the 1st powerplay does not exceed 1, Nepal secures victory. However, if more than 1 wicket is lost, then the runs per wicket in the middle overs should exceed 30 for Nepal to win the match.
Nepal has won 2 matches following this scenario: (S.No: 23, 10).
Upon examining all the data, it becomes evident that the major issue during chases is the low runs per wicket in the middle overs. Nepal consistently achieves a strong start in the powerplay while chasing, but the challenge lies in losing too many wickets during the middle overs, with each wicket falling at just 16 runs. The critical solution lies in having a reliable batsman playing the anchor role, allowing others to play around him. If Nepal adheres to any of the six identified scenarios or avoids losing too many wickets in the middle overs, the team has the potential to become truly formidable. As Nepal heads to the T20 World Cup in June 2024, addressing these insights could pave the way for a more formidable team performance.
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